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Thread: The sheriff and the banker? Russia and china in central asia

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    The sheriff and the banker? Russia and china in central asia

    Russia and China share one interest: displacing the US as the economic and geopolitical leader of the globe. Their interests divert in other matters. Such as in Central Asia. They have been working together, but for how much longer?

    Read the entire article at the link.

    THE SHERIFF AND THE BANKER? RUSSIA AND CHINA IN CENTRAL ASIA

    The last two-and-a-half decades of Russo-Chinese relations have been marked by tension: between the two countries’ growing friendship, and their diverging trajectories. China has successfully integrated into the world economy, grown stronger and more affluent, and subsequently begun to act either more confidently or, according to some observers, more assertively. Meanwhile, Russia has struggled economically, quarreled with the West, and become an undeclared revisionist power. Their close relations now face the challenges of growing asymmetry and a potential clash of interests, particularly in one region whose post-Cold War fate they have come to shape: Central Asia. There, for over a decade, the two seemed to have developed an understanding and an informal “division of labor.” Each side focused on providing what they were better positioned to do: security from Russia and investments from China.


    There are legitimate doubts about the sustainability of this arrangement. Following a barrage of Western sanctions that have further weakened its economy, Russian power might decline so much that others do not trust its ability to play the role of security provider. In fact, Beijing has already taken independent steps to increase its regional security presence both bilaterally and multilaterally, including building bases for Russian allies like Tajikistan and setting up regional fora that exclude Russia.


    Despite these developments, in the near term, Moscow’s existing network of institutional links with Central Asia makes it unlikely that it will abandon the region or be supplanted from its role. It will very much work to remain relevant. Moreover, China’s increased bilateral security assistance to some of Russia’s more vulnerable allies — especially Tajikistan — does not threaten Russia’s standing. In fact, it can be seen as a complementary activity that supports the two countries’ broader agenda of stability and protection of the regional governments friendly to them.


    Division of Labor


    As had been well-documented by others, Russo-Chinese ties grew steadily in the decades after the end of the Cold War and soared after 2014 when Russo-Western ties nosedived following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. At the same time, relations between Moscow and Beijing have also become more unequal. Deborah Welch Larson describes the situation as an “equal partnership of unequals.” Larson and other scholars like Marcin Kaczmarski recognize the significance of this problem and point out that the two had worked out a “modus vivendi” formula, especially in all-important Central Asia. An apparent “division of labor or influence” was unofficially established following the 2008-2009 financial meltdown. As Moscow struggled to economically support its Central Asian partners, Beijing stepped in and provided loans to some of the region’s main natural resources exporters like Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The former received $3 billion for the development of additional gas fields, while Kazakh banks and oil companies were supported with $10 billion in loans. This broke Russia’s control over the export of gas by fully financing, at the cost of $8 billion, the Central Asia–China pipeline that opened in late 2009.


    At the same time, in 2009 Russia and its allies upgraded their military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Here a milestone was the establishment of a 25,000-strong multinational jointly commanded Collective Rapid Reaction Force, charged with conducting “low-intensity operations, which include peacekeeping, counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, emergency response, and countering narcotics trafficking and other transnational criminal activity.” While the organization struggled with inaction during past crises that affected its member states, such as the 2010 Kyrgyzstan riots and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in early 2022 it had its first successful operation in Kazakhstan. For over a decade Russia has been the region’s nominal “sheriff” providing security, while China embraced the role of “banker.”


    Asymmetry of Power

    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


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    They also share a common interest in the very notion of grabbing by military force disputed territories, and don't think the CCP is not watching the success or fail of Putin's War very closely......
    My Revenge will be Success! - Donald J Trump

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