What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare

[Peter1469]

The Ukraine War Is Bleeding Russia Dry

As the Ukraine war grinds into its fifth month, it is increasingly unclear what Russia could possibly win which might justify the massive costs it is incurring for its invasion. Conquest is supposed to pay, otherwise war is irrational. Yet after just a few months, it is obvious that a cost-benefit analysis of the war is negative and trending worse for Russia. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is disinterested in peace talks. At this point, he appears to be fighting the war simply for prestige – to prove that Russia is still a great power. This is ironic, because the war itself is destroying Russia’s very claim to be a great power.



Devastated Conquests Don’t Pay


In eastern Ukraine, Russia is finally making progress. It is conquering territory. It appears close to fully capturing Luhansk and Donetsk, the Donbas territories Russia claims are independent countries. And Russia controls much of Ukraine’s coast. So Putin might soon be able to declare a kind of ‘victory.’


But this is success in only the most basic, blunt-force way. It is true that Russia now controls a bit more territory than it did before, and that territorial control is a zero-sum game because there is only so much land-space in the world. Russia now controls more than it did in February, which is a success of sorts. But this victory has otherwise been very limited.

***

Occupying these conquests will be expensive, because a major military or police presence will be needed to prevent revolts. (Ukraine was a hotbed of resistance to both the Nazis and Soviets.) Reconstruction, in order to extract any economic value from these spaces, will be another drain. Most of the world will not recognize these conquests as Russian territory. This means investment and trade will be minimal. Business will also be deterred by the ruined infrastructure. Nor will economically productive people move into such conflict-ridden regions.
Only the old and frail will likely stay.


In short order, these conquered areas will require subsidization from the Russian government to survive. This has been a pattern in other Russian ‘frozen conflicts.’ They become an expense and a burden. This is not a sustainable model of expansion, nor is it conquest that pays.

[Admiral Ackbar]

If we got into a war every time there was a border dispute in Europe???? OMG.. Especially Eastern Europe. All this is is an Eastern European borderwar.

It is of no importance to us.

That is why I chuckle when I hear the absolute certainty that the border of something called Ukraine must be protected! What a joke

[Peter1469]

If we got into a war every time there was a border dispute in Europe???? OMG.. Especially Eastern Europe. All this is is and Eastern European borderwar.

It is of no importance to us.

That is why I chuckle when I hear the absolute certainty that the border of something called Ukraine must be protected! What a joke

Since 1100 AD Ukraine has been an independent nation for about 30 years. Bad geography.

[FindersKeepers]

If we got into a war every time there was a border dispute in Europe???? OMG.. Especially Eastern Europe. All this is is an Eastern European borderwar.

It is of no importance to us.

That is why I chuckle when I hear the absolute certainty that the border of something called Ukraine must be protected! What a joke

I agree 100%.

[Peter1469]

The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia, giving it full control of Ukraine’s breakaway Luhansk region and putting it in position to gain control over more of Donetsk. The fight in the Donbass favors Russia's way of war. Open plains where their artillery battery groups can freely operate. I am sure the Western think tanks and militaries are studying this.

Read the entire article at the link.

Russian Military Doctrine


The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia, giving it full control of Ukraine’s breakaway Luhansk region and putting it in position to gain control over more of Donetsk, the other region that the Kremlin recognized as independent two days before launching its invasion. Russia has the choice of accepting this victory as the culmination of the war or seeking total victory by seizing all of Ukraine. Before considering that option, we need to understand the conceptual framework that defined Russia’s initial plan.

All military forces have a doctrine. Doctrine defines how wars are to be fought. In the United States during the late Cold War, the doctrine was called AirLand Battle, which envisioned a combined arms system for offense and defense operating as a single force under unified command. The Chinese had a doctrine called active defense, which envisioned the enemy constantly on the attack while Chinese forces both contained them in most sectors and carried out attacks as opportunities arose. There are many concepts in any military, and most are of little account. The basic combat model defines the type of weapons to be procured, the proper blend of forces, the training they receive and so on. Doctrines exist for an entire theater and for much smaller units. All must be blended in a single battle force in the event of war.

The Russian doctrine defined after the fall of the Soviet Union is called Deep Battle. It anticipates Russian combat at any level of warfare. The goal is to go as deeply and quickly into the enemy as possible. To do this, there must be intense coordination at all levels of the battle and also between levels. So in Ukraine, Deep Battle was to coordinate the general operations in each theater. Theaters were needed to manage the battle at components as small as battalions. The depth of the doctrine is determined not only by how far the enemy can be penetrated but also by how deeply command and control can be carried out.

Deep Battle holds great promise when information flows rapidly to the next highest level of command. The Russian army is a sledgehammer. When that coordination, consultation and command breaks down – and the key is communication, which is notoriously late or wrong in a battle – the hammer hits the army at its knees. Deep Battle turns into a centralized command system, where senior command cannot see realities at the lower level.


The concept for the initial attack on Ukraine followed the Deep Battle concept.

[Peter1469]

US: Russian Military Facing 'Severe Manpower Shortages'

The United States has determined that Russia is suffering "severe manpower shortages" in its six-month-old war with Ukraine and has become more desperate in its efforts to find new troops to send to the front lines, according to a new American intelligence finding disclosed Wednesday.


Russia is looking to address the shortage of troops in part by compelling soldiers wounded earlier in the war to return to combat, recruiting personnel from private security companies and even recruiting from prisons, according to a U.S. official who spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity to discuss the downgraded intelligence finding.


The official added that the intelligence community has determined that one step that Russia's Defense Ministry is expected to take soon is recruiting convicted criminals to enlist "in exchange for pardons and financial compensation."


The U.S. government highlighted its finding as Russian President Vladimir Putin last week ordered the Russian military to increase the number of troops by 137,000 to a total of 1.15 million.


Putin's decree, which takes effect on Jan. 1, didn't specify whether the military would beef up its ranks by drafting a bigger number of conscripts, increasing the number of volunteer soldiers or using a combination of both. But some Russian military analysts predicted it would rely heavily on volunteers, a cautious stand reflecting the Kremlin's concerns about possible fallout from an attempt to increase the draft.

[MisterVeritis]

US: Russian Military Facing 'Severe Manpower Shortages'


The United States has determined that Russia is suffering "severe manpower shortages" in its six-month-old war with Ukraine and has become more desperate in its efforts to find new troops to send to the front lines, according to a new American intelligence finding disclosed Wednesday.


Russia is looking to address the shortage of troops in part by compelling soldiers wounded earlier in the war to return to combat, recruiting personnel from private security companies and even recruiting from prisons, according to a U.S. official who spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity to discuss the downgraded intelligence finding.


The official added that the intelligence community has determined that one step that Russia's Defense Ministry is expected to take soon is recruiting convicted criminals to enlist "in exchange for pardons and financial compensation."


The U.S. government highlighted its finding as Russian President Vladimir Putin last week ordered the Russian military to increase the number of troops by 137,000 to a total of 1.15 million.


Putin's decree, which takes effect on Jan. 1, didn't specify whether the military would beef up its ranks by drafting a bigger number of conscripts, increasing the number of volunteer soldiers or using a combination of both. But some Russian military analysts predicted it would rely heavily on volunteers, a cautious stand reflecting the Kremlin's concerns about possible fallout from an attempt to increase the draft.

I wonder how much of this is Pablum intended to convince Congress to continue to send many tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine every month?

[Mister D]

Since 1100 AD Ukraine has been an independent nation for about 30 years. Bad geography.

Prior to nationalism, I doubt Ukrainians cared.

[Phoenyx]

Since 1100 AD Ukraine has been an independent nation for about 30 years. Bad geography.

Prior to nationalism, I doubt Ukrainians cared.

I think any people likes to be free to do things the way they want to do them. However, the term Ukrainian seems to only have arrived in the 20th century:


**
Ethnic Ukrainians were historically known as Ruthenians (Ukrainian: Русини, romanized: Rysyny, pronounced [ruˈsɪnɪ]) until the early 20th century,^[51][52][53] referring to the medieval land of Ruthenia, which was the Latin term for what is now known as Kievan Rus, a medieval East Slavic state with the capital in Kyiv. After its collapse, the Kingdom of Ruthenia emerged, but was soon dismantled by its neighbours. Starting from the 15th century, the people of Ukraine were also known as Cossacks and formed the state Zaporizhian Host. The connection with the Zaporozhian Cossacks especially, is emphasized in the Ukrainian national anthem, "We are, brothers, of Cossack kin".
**


Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians


And then there is the fact that there were a lot of other nationalities in Ukraine prior to Ukraine's civil war, especially ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.

[Peter1469]

Originally Posted by Peter1469
Since 1100 AD Ukraine has been an independent nation for about 30 years. Bad geography.

Prior to nationalism, I doubt Ukrainians cared.

I am not sure that is true, but it is not relevant. They just couldn't be a nation because outside powers controlled them.