The Ukraine War Is Bleeding Russia Dry
As the Ukraine war grinds into its fifth month, it is increasingly unclear what Russia could possibly win which might justify the massive costs it is incurring for its invasion. Conquest is supposed to pay, otherwise war is irrational. Yet after just a few months, it is obvious that a cost-benefit analysis of the war is negative and trending worse for Russia. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is disinterested in peace talks. At this point, he appears to be fighting the war simply for prestige – to prove that Russia is still a great power. This is ironic, because the war itself is destroying Russia’s very claim to be a great power.
Devastated Conquests Don’t Pay
In eastern Ukraine, Russia is finally making progress. It is conquering territory. It appears close to fully capturing Luhansk and Donetsk, the Donbas territories Russia claims are independent countries. And Russia controls much of Ukraine’s coast. So Putin might soon be able to declare a kind of ‘victory.’
But this is success in only the most basic, blunt-force way. It is true that Russia now controls a bit more territory than it did before, and that territorial control is a zero-sum game because there is only so much land-space in the world. Russia now controls more than it did in February, which is a success of sorts. But this victory has otherwise been very limited.
***
Occupying these conquests will be expensive, because a major military or police presence will be needed to prevent revolts. (Ukraine was a hotbed of resistance to both the Nazis and Soviets.) Reconstruction, in order to extract any economic value from these spaces, will be another drain. Most of the world will not recognize these conquests as Russian territory. This means investment and trade will be minimal. Business will also be deterred by the ruined infrastructure. Nor will economically productive people move into such conflict-ridden regions.
Only the old and frail will likely stay.
In short order, these conquered areas will require subsidization from the Russian government to survive. This has been a pattern in other Russian ‘frozen conflicts.’ They become an expense and a burden. This is not a sustainable model of expansion, nor is it conquest that pays.