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Thread: What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare

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    What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare

    An interesting an balanced article discussing the lessons from the Russo-Ukraine war and avoiding the topics still open for debate, such as the age of the tank- is it over?


    What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, he envisaged a quick seizure of Kyiv and a change of government analogous to Soviet interventions in Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968. But it wasn’t to be. The war is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end.


    While some observers have urged an early ceasefire, others have emphasised the importance of punishing Russian aggression. Ultimately, though, the outcome will be determined by facts on the ground. Since it’s too early to guess even when the war will end, some conclusions are obviously premature. For example, arguments that the era of tank warfare is over have been refuted as the battle has moved from Kyiv’s northern suburbs to the eastern plains of the Donbas.


    But even at this early stage, there are at least eight lessons—some old, some new—that the world is learning (or relearning) from the war in Ukraine.


    First, nuclear deterrence works, but it depends on relative stakes more than on capabilities.

    Second, economic interdependence doesn’t prevent war.

    Third, uneven economic interdependence can be weaponised by the less dependent party, but when the stakes are symmetrical, there’s little power in interdependence.

    Fourth, while sanctions can raise the costs for aggressors, they don’t determine outcomes in the short term.

    Fifth, information warfare makes a difference.

    Sixth, both hard and soft power matter. While coercion trumps persuasion in the near term, soft power can make a difference over time. Smart power is the ability to combine hard and soft power so that they reinforce rather than contradict each other.

    Seventh, cyber capability isn’t a silver bullet.

    Finally, the most important lesson is also one of the oldest: war is unpredictable. As Shakespeare wrote more than four centuries ago, it’s dangerous for a leader to ‘cry “Havoc!” and let slip the dogs of war’’ The promise of a short war is perilously seductive.

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    I don’t believe it’s been a good lesson on modern warfare. The Russia are not a good teaching tool as they are plagued with poor / incompetent leadership and horrible morale.

    Neither are the Ukrainians a good tool as they are vastly out-manned and out-gunned.
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    "First, nuclear deterrence works, but it depends on relative stakes more than on capabilities. The West has been deterred, but only up to a point. Putin’s threats have prevented Western governments from sending troops (though not equipment) to Ukraine. This outcome doesn’t reflect any superior Russian nuclear capability; rather, it reflects the gap between Putin’s definition of Ukraine as a vital national interest and the West’s definition of Ukraine as an important but less vital interest."

    Vital national interest versus no national interest.

    There it is in a nutshell.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    "Second, economic interdependence doesn’t prevent war. While this lesson used to be widely recognised—particularly after World War I broke out among the world’s leading trade partners—it was ignored by German policymakers such as former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder. His government increased Germany’s imports of, and dependence on, Russian oil and gas, perhaps hoping that breaking trade ties would be too costly for either side. But while economic interdependence can raise the costs of war, it clearly doesn’t prevent it."

    Economic interdependence can be used as a war weapon. Russia understood that while western Europe did not. Russia provides inexpensive fuels to western European nations who are remarkably passive. Despite talk-talk-talk, wester European countries continue to buy Russian fuels.

    Meanwhile, Russia is winning its war against Ukraine.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    "Second, economic interdependence doesn’t prevent war. While this lesson used to be widely recognised—particularly after World War I broke out among the world’s leading trade partners—it was ignored by German policymakers such as former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder. His government increased Germany’s imports of, and dependence on, Russian oil and gas, perhaps hoping that breaking trade ties would be too costly for either side. But while economic interdependence can raise the costs of war, it clearly doesn’t prevent it."

    Economic interdependence can be used as a war weapon. Russia understood that while western Europe did not. Russia provides inexpensive fuels to western European nations who are remarkably passive. Despite talk-talk-talk, wester European countries continue to buy Russian fuels.

    Meanwhile, Russia is winning its war against Ukraine.
    And the world is paying Russia to do it.
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    All that said, we are not learning any important new lessons on the conduct of modern warfare. All we are seeing is strategic and tactical incompetence.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    All that said, we are not learning any important new lessons on the conduct of modern warfare. All we are seeing is strategic and tactical incompetence.
    Strategically, Russia has essentially neutralized the western European countries with inexpensive fuels and a wide range of nuclear weapons. That is not incompetence on Russia's part. But it is on western European countries.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Second, economic interdependence doesn’t prevent war.


    This is a persistent liberal canard but we knew that by August 1, 1914.
    Whoever criticizes capitalism, while approving immigration, whose working class is its first victim, had better shut up. Whoever criticizes immigration, while remaining silent about capitalism, should do the same.


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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    Strategically, Russia has essentially neutralized the western European countries with inexpensive fuels and a wide range of nuclear weapons. That is not incompetence on Russia's part. But it is on western European countries.
    And did Biden learn his lesson?
    Apparently not as he wants to drop and lower tariffs on China and import oil from Iran and Venezuela.
    Let's go Brandon !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    Strategically, Russia has essentially neutralized the western European countries with inexpensive fuels and a wide range of nuclear weapons. That is not incompetence on Russia's part. But it is on western European countries.
    Russia had demonstrated complete strategic and tactical incompetence.
    When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.“ - Benjamin Franklin.


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