An interesting an balanced article discussing the lessons from the Russo-Ukraine war and avoiding the topics still open for debate, such as the age of the tank- is it over?
What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare
When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, he envisaged a quick seizure of Kyiv and a change of government analogous to Soviet interventions in Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968. But it wasn’t to be. The war is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end.
While some observers have urged an early ceasefire, others have emphasised the importance of punishing Russian aggression. Ultimately, though, the outcome will be determined by facts on the ground. Since it’s too early to guess even when the war will end, some conclusions are obviously premature. For example, arguments that the era of tank warfare is over have been refuted as the battle has moved from Kyiv’s northern suburbs to the eastern plains of the Donbas.
But even at this early stage, there are at least eight lessons—some old, some new—that the world is learning (or relearning) from the war in Ukraine.
First, nuclear deterrence works, but it depends on relative stakes more than on capabilities.
Second, economic interdependence doesn’t prevent war.
Third, uneven economic interdependence can be weaponised by the less dependent party, but when the stakes are symmetrical, there’s little power in interdependence.
Fourth, while sanctions can raise the costs for aggressors, they don’t determine outcomes in the short term.
Fifth, information warfare makes a difference.
Sixth, both hard and soft power matter. While coercion trumps persuasion in the near term, soft power can make a difference over time. Smart power is the ability to combine hard and soft power so that they reinforce rather than contradict each other.
Seventh, cyber capability isn’t a silver bullet.
Finally, the most important lesson is also one of the oldest: war is unpredictable. As Shakespeare wrote more than four centuries ago, it’s dangerous for a leader to ‘cry “Havoc!” and let slip the dogs of war’’ The promise of a short war is perilously seductive.