The article appears to be late considering Pelosi should be landing today. But it does have some good predications of Chinese prospects for the rest of the decade since it appears to have linked itself to Russia. (More so than it already was.)
Preparing the Battlefield
Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan is a rare and commendable act of strategic sense that received equally rare and commendable bipartisan support. Yet considering the geostrategic and economic conditions that China faces, it is not without risk. The CCP faces a closing window of opportunity. It must act soon to shape the battlefield and divide the United States from its Taiwanese partner. The U.S. should act accordingly, making contingency plans for a military response if needed, staging major exercises to demonstrate its seriousness, and above all, accepting that deterrence in this crisis will not reduce the possibility of conflict in the next one.
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Nevertheless, the Biden administration is correct in a sense: the CCP will act, and it may do so sooner than expected. The so-called Davidson Window – named for Admiral Philip Davidson’s (USN, ret.) warning that China would move on Taiwan, possibly within the decade – assesses the situation correctly. The PLA is assembling the capabilities for a high-intensity amphibious assault on Taiwan to subjugate the island, shatter the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific position by breaking the First Island Chain, dominate East Asia’s sea lanes, and acquire Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor industry.
However, the Davidson Window overestimates the time that China must achieve its ambitions. Domestic-economic, geopolitical, and military trends suggest that, by the end of this decade, China may be in a far weaker position vis-a-vis the U.S. and Taiwan than in the near future.
China’s domestic economy is on the brink of a severe contraction.
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All this points to a nightmarish scenario for China by the late 2020s. Russia is economically hollow and technologically and financially dependent upon China, while lacking the ability to rattle Europe and divert Western resources. Iran and perhaps Pakistan are increasingly in China’s orbit, along with Venezuela and Cuba. But the Gulf Arabs and Israel, both backed by the United States, are comfortable restricting Chinese petrochemical, technology, and investment flows. Taiwan is armed with new mobile anti-ship and anti-air missiles, UCAVs, and counter-UCAVs that indicate a protracted conflict over the island. And China, with sluggish growth, an ageing population, and a colossal Eurasian dependent-cum-vassal, has no conceivable way of conquering Taiwan beyond a multi-year Pacific War, one that is likely to break the Chinese state.