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Thread: Russia’s Protracted War in Ukraine

  1. #11
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    MisterVeritis's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captdon View Post
    Russia is China's $#@!. They no longer matter in a conventional war.
    So are we, apparently.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    Retool, rearm and then attack. That's the plan. They've said so.
    Can they though?
    When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.“ - Benjamin Franklin.


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  3. #13
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    Current map: I expect this is what the post-war map will look like.

    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  4. #14

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    That will be the post war map until Russia rearms and decides to go at it again.
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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  6. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    That will be the post war map until Russia rearms and decides to go at it again.
    It will take a long time for that. I expect Ukraine will have its own nuclear weapons before that.
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  7. #16
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    This is big, if it happens. The troops should eat better than at home, at least.

    100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine

    Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports.


    A leading defence expert in Moscow, reserve colonel Igor Korotchenko, told state TV: “We shouldn’t be shy in accepting the hand extended to us by Kim Jong-un.”


    North Korea has made it clear through “diplomatic channels” that as well as providing builders to repair war damage, it is ready to supply a vast fighting force, reported Regnum news agency.


    They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.


    “The country is ready to transfer up to 100,000 of its soldiers to Donbas,” said the report by the pro-Kremlin news agency.


    “Pyongyang will be able to transfer its tactical units to Donbas.”


    In return, grain and energy would be supplied to Kim’s stricken economy.
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  9. #17
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    Russia conscripts "useless" people to fill the gaps in the force. These are the guys who will conquer the West.

    Russian forces launched a new wave of forced "mobilisation" on the Russian-occupied territories of Donbas on 1 August in order to staff mobilisation reserve units.

    ***


    Ukrainian Intelligence reports that Russian mobilisation efforts are now targeting those unfit for service and those who have previously received a "deferral".


    For example, two buses of men were filled in just about 40 minutes at a market in Luhansk; most of the men were working as loaders at the market. In Alchevsk, men were simply taken from the streets. Local residents are outraged and local men are beginning to hide.


    Total forced mobilisation is currently underway in many towns and villages in Donbas. The number of Russian patrol forces on the street of Khrustalne has increased; these patrol officers take men to military commissariat to be conscripted. The Russians are continuing to "raid" local businesses [in order to find men who can be mobilised - ed.].

    Quote
    : "Meanwhile, there is a growing dissatisfaction among the men from the ORDLO (Temporarily Occupied Territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast) who had been mobilised earlier. [They are dissatisfied] with the horrible treatment the [Donbas] locals receive from their commanders in the occupation army.


    In particular, while the locals have been issued with WWII-type ammunition, the Russians are issued with modern armoured vests and helmets."
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  10. #18
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    Ukraine is doing something new. Preparing a major offensive operation to retake Kherson.

    Ukraine Needs A Miracle To Drive Russia’s Military Out Of Kherson


    At the end of July, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry released a stark warning for Russian forces in the Kherson region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), the statement said, were preparing for a large-scale counteroffensive, saying the Russians in Kherson had a choice: “retreat or be annihilated.” Like many other claims by Ukraine in the south, however, this threat has yet to be acted on. A study of the geography and a comparison of the forces involved, however, exposes the reality that only a miracle could see Ukraine drive Russia from Kherson.

    Actually, Kyiv would need closer to three miracles to pull an effective offensive there.


    On March 2, just days into the war, Russia captured Kherson in southern Ukraine, making it the first major city to fall. Putin’s troops have held it ever since. Almost immediately, Ukraine declared their intention to retake the city. Over the past several months, various Ukrainian officials have claimed the UAF was either about to begin a counteroffensive to take back the city, or had already started it.

    ***

    As I have previously detailed in these pages, there are fundamental military reasons why Ukraine is very unlikely to successfully launch a counteroffensive in the foreseeable future. Yet there is even more reason to question the feasibility of Ukraine attempting a counter-offensive in the Kherson region.

    Many Western analysts have suggested that this summer marks a critical period for Ukraine’s war effort, and the claimed offensive in Kherson could be a make-or-break moment for Kyiv. If those are the stakes, then Zelensky should abandon the idea now, before an even greater disaster results.

    The reason: to conduct a successful military offensive, Ukraine would need to produce three successive military miracles. Spoiler alert: the chances of attaining even one miracle is unlikely in the extreme; there is zero rational chance for three.


    To demonstrate why there is so little chance for this offensive to succeed, we will conduct a mental exercise to illustrate the compounding levels of difficulty. For the purposes of all that follow, let us for the moment say that somehow Ukraine was able to overcome every obstacle I articulated in my previous work that would be necessary even to launch the operation (marshaling sufficient manpower, tanks, air power, ammunition and other supplies necessary to sustain combat operations). Launching the offensive will only be the first of several monumental task.


    Miracle #1: Russia Doesn’t Make Adjustments to the Offensive


    Miracle #2: Geography Doesn’t Matter


    If somehow Ukraine overcame all the obstacles necessary to launch an offensive and then made miracle #1 happen that Russia didn’t augment its defenders, they still have to overcome two major challenges with geography.

    [20 miles of open steppe from their staging area to the city]


    Miracle #3: Ukraine is Able to Successfully Drive Russian Troops from Urban Territory with Fewer Troops, Artillery, and Air Power than the Defenders


    One of the enduring requirements of attacks since World War I has been the necessity of the attacking force having superiority in numbers of troops, numbers of armored vehicles, artillery, and air power.

    [Doctrine dictates that the attacker should have the numerical advantage of 3:1 over the defender.]


    The Harish Reality


    Every important historic battlefield determinant indicates Ukraine would fail if it tried to launch an offensive against Russia in Kherson. It is true that in wartime there is no such thing as “never.”

    There is no “sure thing,” no slam-dunk certainties, and no guarantees. It is theoretically possible that Ukraine could overcome every obstacle and still defeat Russia. But it’s also true, that battlefield miracles are rare, and vastly outweighed by the occasions when predictable, quantifiable military metrics presage the outcome.





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  11. #19
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    Ukraine destroys Russian supply bridges, one-fifth of ground forces

    And who thinks Russia is invading the West next?

    Ukraine troops have blown up two primary bridges that Russian troops used to access occupied territory as the country’s top soldier said Saturday that one fifth of invading ground forces have been “destroyed” with the conflict nearing its sixth month.


    The Antonivsy road bridge and the Kherson rail bridge over the Dnipro River were heavily damaged in attacks earlier this week and are “likely unusable for heavy military vehicles,” according to a report from British intelligence released Saturday. That could mean Russian soliders are stuck with limited options for new supplies or weapons to reach them.


    Both spans have been used by Russian forces in the occupied city of Kherson on the Black Sea to transport soldiers and war materiel. Large parts of the region are occupied by Russian soldiers.


    “The two primary road bridges giving access to the pocket of Russian occupied territory on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast are now probably out of use for the purpose of substantial military resupply,” the British intelligence briefing said. “On 10 August 2022, Ukrainian precision strikes likely rendered the road crossing of the Dnipro River at Nova Kakhovka unusable for heavy military vehicles. In recent days, Russia has only succeeded in making superficial repairs to the damaged Antonivsky road bridge, which likely remains structurally undermined.”


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    This war is looking like a stalemate at this point. How much longer can they maintain this?
    When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.“ - Benjamin Franklin.


    “When people get used to preferential treatment equal treatment seems like discrimination.” - Thomas Sowell

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