Not even close to science of any kind, but the power of observation.
What is your personal experience of climate in your neck of the woods ?
I'm in my 60's and have lived most ( not all) but most of my life within an hour or so of where I sit as I type this, in NNY.
The winters of my youth were straight up harsh. Walkways shoveled to the house sometimes meant snow banks over adults heads on both side, I've seen snow in all but two months ( July and August) And every winter saw at least one episode of 40 below, as teens we played street hockey or skated at 20 below. My jean cuffs would be frozen solid when I got home and my feet were very white. But we played. Some of the best times of my life, were surrounded by sandlot sports. Anyway, such were the winters I knew. I wish I had asked my parents more about the winters of their youth, but kids don't do that. They never really said that they had been much different though.
Then in the late 80's or so we had a few mild winters and then than continued. There was snow, but it often came in huge storms we now know as lake effect and they often came because it was warmer. Nonetheless instead of what we used to call "the January thaw" we might see bare ground half a dozen times a winter!
And that was how winters stayed for since, except possibly for a slight cooling trend but nowhere close to the winters of the 60's on average. 20 below is nor about as common as 30 below or colder used to be.
All observations, but not just mine.
So in my lifetime, in this corner of the world, my experience parallels the warming then pause we are told about.
So I wanted to ask what your climate experiences have been over time in your area?