The Grid tries to sus out the data on the Rus-Ukraine war. Accurate numbers are hard to come by, but here it goes.

The Ukraine War in data: After 9 months of war, what the data tells us

It’s nine months ago that Russian troops went into Ukraine. Nine months ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin told his people and the world that a “special military operation” was required to purge Ukraine of its “Nazi” and “genocidal” regime. These were the first salvos of lies and misinformation that would become a regular feature of a Putin’s war on Ukraine.


Western governments and military experts — and by all accounts Putin and his top advisers themselves — thought the “operation” would be brief. It’s now nine months old, with no negotiations underway and no other endgames in view.


In this week’s edition of the war in data, we use the available data to step back and take stock of where things stand in the war, from a range of perspectives.


First, the battlefield. For all the surprise gains made by the Ukrainian resistance, one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory remains in Russian hands. The good news for the Ukrainians is that recent momentum is with their side; Ukraine’s armed forces have now reclaimed about 55 percent of the territory Russia had occupied earlier in the war.


Next, the casualties. As we have said here before, reporting on casualties of this war has been difficult. The data below breaks things down in terms of the varying estimates from different sources, but recently the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff estimated that more than 100,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began. The assessment of Ukrainian casualties was nearly as high. It’s a staggering toll — and it continues to grow.


As far as civilians are concerned, these numbers are also difficult to assess with accuracy. The United Nations body that tracks civilian casualties in Ukraine has most recently given 6,500 as its figure for the civilian toll, but it only counts a death once a name and other details can be confirmed. Ukrainian officials have estimated that some 40,000 civilians have been killed.


Meanwhile, more than 7.8 million people have fled Ukraine as refugees since February, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency; millions more have fled their homes but stayed in the country. It is far and away the largest displacement of people in Europe since World War II. And while a sizable number of refugees have begun to return — for the past few months, traffic at the main border crossing with Poland has been roughly even in both directions — that may change in the coming weeks. This week, the World Health Organization warned that as many as 3 million more Ukrainians will likely leave their homes this winter, as Ukraine’s government begins evacuating areas where it says it cannot guarantee adequate supplies of power and heat.


Ten million Ukrainians are now living without power, Hans Kluge, the WHO’s regional director for Europe, told reporters, and half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed by recent Russian missile attacks.

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Other metrics of war at the nine-month mark:


According to Oryx, which tracks figures for Russian equipment lost on the battlefield (“lost” being defined as destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured), Russia has lost 1,503 tanks, 154 Multiple Rocket Launchers, 63 aircraft, 71 helicopters and 12 naval vessels.


And when it comes to economic knock-on effects, two figures that might come as surprises: Benchmark prices for oil spiked soon after the Russian invasion, but they have dropped significantly since, from $92.81 on Feb. 24 to $77.29 as of Wednesday. And in the same time frame, the price of a bushel of wheat has fallen from $9.34 to $8.10.


Lastly, this week brought one new metric, born of those infrastructure crises that are crippling parts of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Tuesday that 4,000 centers are being set up across the country where basic needs — heat, power, water and sanitation — are to be provided, no matter what happens in the weeks and months to come.


We offer a more comprehensive set of data points on the war in Ukraine below. Grid originally published this document on March 24, the one-month anniversary of the war. We update it every Thursday to provide a fuller picture of the conflict.




Civilians killed: at least 6,500 (probably thousands more)

Ukrainian soldiers killed: 5,500 to 11,000

[Likely more like 100,000 KIA/WIA]

Russian soldiers killed: 5,937 to more than 85,000

Total displaced Ukrainians: more than 14 million