Is the Russia-Ukraine war about to escalate?

[Tahuyaman]

The war will escalate. I think that scenario happens only if Belarus enters the war.

Russia can intensify their effort without Belarus. Sure they’d like to add them to the mix, but it’s not necessary.

[Tahuyaman]

Retired Gen. McCaffery disagrees with the OP.

Putin Has an Ominous Spring Strategy for Ukraine War: Four-Star General


Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to launch a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the spring and is attempting to pressure top ally Belarus into joining the war, retired four-star U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey warned.
During an appearance on MSNBC Thursday, McCaffrey stressed that Ukraine can't win the war while it is on the defensive. He said that Ukraine is in a situation where it has put Russia's army in check, "not checkmate."


Meanwhile, Russia is slowly destroying Ukraine from the air as it conducts waves of missile strikes against the war-torn country.


Ukraine must be provided with a tool that allows the country to break out of this situation, such as long-distance surface-to-surface missiles and M1 tanks, McCaffrey said. He asserted that the Patriot surface-to-air missile systems the U.S. is now sending are not enough, and that Ukraine is still in great danger and the game needs to change on the ground.

In another MSNBC appearance on Friday, McCaffrey said that some of the fighting in eastern Ukraine had descended into trench warfare and artillery bombardment, with both sides seeing "huge casualties." Russia and Ukraine are currently at a "dangerous" stalemate, McCaffrey said.




McCaffrey's warning about what Russia may attempt in the spring and his believed pressure for direct involvement from Belarus came after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko began testing the combat readiness of his country's troops this month. This is only one prong of recently intensified activities centered on Russia and its top ally.


The Interfax news agency, citing Russia's Defense Ministry, reported Monday that Russian troops will conduct military exercises in Belarus. Putin also traveled to Belarus to meet with Lukashenko earlier this week, during which the two leaders reportedly spoke about forming a "single defense space" in the region, according to the Associated Press.


While refraining from direct involvement so far in the war in Ukraine, Belarus has aided Russia's aggression by allowing Putin to stage troops within and launch attacks from its territory. Experts have cast doubt on whether Lukashenko will ultimately bend to Putin's purported pressure, though they haven't entirely ruled out the possibility.


Michael Kimmage, professor and chair of the Catholic University of America's history department, told Newsweek on Tuesday that while there have been surprises in the war, he believes the probability of a significant invasion from Belarus is "extremely low."


McCaffrey also noted while speaking to MSNBC on Thursday that he doesn't believe that Belarus will "buy into" Putin's pressure to get involved in the war.

Where exactly does McCaffrey disagree?

[carolina73]

I predicted long ago that while Putin has had military setbacks he will not give up so easily and should not be underestimated.

We are the fools becoming so energy dependent!

And Why is Biden doing everything he can do to strengthen Russia economically?

[Peter1469]

Where exactly does McCaffrey disagree?

McCaffrey also noted while speaking to MSNBC on Thursday that he doesn't believe that Belarus will "buy into" Putin's pressure to get involved in the war.

[DGUtley]

McCaffrey also noted while speaking to MSNBC on Thursday that he doesn't believe that Belarus will "buy into" Putin's pressure to get involved in the war.

Belarus will do as Putin wishes.

[Peter1469]

Belarus will do as Putin wishes.

As I said in post 1, we'll see.

[Peter1469]

Foreign Policy Mag seems to think Belarus will join in the fight. Where they are staging, near Poland, would allow them to stop, or attempt to stop, the flow of Western aid to Ukraine.

Belarus Is Inching Toward Invading Ukraine


Recent satellite images of Belarus show newly carved forest roads and the movement of a slow stream of military equipment to Ukraine’s northern border. Many experts take it as a sign that Belarus is likely to be the next front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The arrival of new equipment, together with a recent “counterterror” operation and snap inspection of troops organized by the Belarusian military, has made the Ukrainian government worried that a new offensive could be launched from the north early next year.

[DGUtley]

Foreign Policy Mag seems to think Belarus will join in the fight. Where they are staging, near Poland, would allow them to stop, or attempt to stop, the flow of Western aid to Ukraine.

Belarus Is Inching Toward Invading Ukraine




Recent satellite images of Belarus show newly carved forest roads and the movement of a slow stream of military equipment to Ukraine’s northern border. Many experts take it as a sign that Belarus is likely to be the next front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The arrival of new equipment, together with a recent “counterterror” operation and snap inspection of troops organized by the Belarusian military, has made the Ukrainian government worried that a new offensive could be launched from the north early next year.

Lines in the sand will thus be crossed. What will happen next?

[Peter1469]

Lines in the sand will thus be crossed. What will happen next?

I don't know. I don't see NATO agreeing to intervein militarily.

[Tahuyaman]

McCaffrey also noted while speaking to MSNBC on Thursday that he doesn't believe that Belarus will "buy into" Putin's pressure to get involved in the war.

McCaffrey believes Russia will intensify their attacks.