I think the world was already on the path to the end of the unipolar era back to a multipolar era. Here, Geopolitics says that the unipolar era won't end unless Russia decisively wins in Ukraine- which is very unlikely. Is this why the US is flooding Ukraine with weapons? If so, although I don't agree with the premise, it is a rational reason to spend so much US treasure there. Securing Ukraine's borders isn't. Fear that Russia will invade NATO nations also isn't rational outside of just sticking Russia in the eye.

The Impact of the Ukraine War on Saudi Power Relations

Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, political analysts have asserted that a Russian victory would lead to a multipolar international system, ending the United States’ more than three decades of global hegemony. They point to Saudi Arabia’s strong economic ties with China and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin as evidence of an emerging multipolar system, one in which Riyadh will terminate its partnership with Washington and join the Sino-Russian camp.

It’s doubtful that Russia will win an outright victory, given Ukraine’s determined resistance and the massive U.S. military support for Kyiv. But regardless of how the war ends, it’s unlikely that such a world will develop. Despite Saudi Arabia’s sometimes bumpy relationship with the U.S., the two countries are unlikely to drift apart.

Uneasy Relationship


China is still a rising economy, aspiring to broaden economic cooperation with countries around the world, especially since its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative has lost momentum. It’s been replaced by Beijing’s new plan, the Global Development Initiative, which appeals to Saudi Arabia with its sustainable development focus. The Saudis, who are struggling with their own development initiative, called Vision 2030, view China as the panacea for achieving economic growth without relying on hydrocarbons. Saudi Arabia wants advanced technologies that China can provide without strings attached, since Beijing has no political or security interests in the region. Its economic activities also don’t impinge on the economic interests of other countries in the region.

Russia’s Declining Influence


No Alternative

Saudi foreign policy has often been marred by periods of confrontation with regional and international powers, but they’re usually followed by reconciliation. Saudi Arabia has consistently improved ties with its neighbors and with outside powers following each setback. Indeed, the strength of Saudi foreign policy is its resilience in pursuing changing interests. Even before the Second World War, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz, chose to align the kingdom with the rising global power, the United States, over the declining British Empire. He told his advisers that the United States was a partner and Britain a friend, and that the partner always takes precedence over the friend. MBS probably values Chinese and Russian leaders as friends, but the U.S. remains his country’s most important strategic partner.

There is no alternative for the Saudis. China can contribute to Saudi Arabia’s economic development plans – which the U.S. doesn’t oppose – but neither Beijing nor Moscow can offer the same security benefits that Washington can. More, both China and Russia have been expanding ties with Riyadh’s biggest rival, Iran, while the U.S. is intent on containing the Islamic Republic’s regional activities. Saudi Arabia will therefore continue to align with the U.S. for years to come.