With 10% of the world's area and such a low percentage of the world's fresh water, the Arab world has real problems. It creates serious internal stability issues, and it creates the potential for war over water resources.
Water Scarcity in the Arab World
Many prosperous ancient civilizations in the Arab world had at least one thing in common: an abundance of water. Today, however, the Arab region in West Asia and North Africa could become the most water-scarce area in the world. Demand is rising, driven by the region’s rapidly growing population, which totaled 400 million in 2016 and is projected to reach 670 million by 2050. Its many political crises are fueled by the region’s unresolved water disputes, including over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Israel’s diversion of the tributaries of the Jordan River, and Turkey’s siphoning off of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. For Arab countries, it’s a problem with no solution in sight.
Magnitude of the Crisis
Although the Arab region comprises 10 percent of the world’s area, it contains less than 1 percent of the world’s surface runoff and about 2 percent of total rainfall. According to the United Nations, water scarcity exists where annual supplies drop below 1,000 cubic meters per capita. Some 16 of 22 Arab countries have a per capita average below 500 cubic meters, considered to be the mark at which a population faces “absolute scarcity.” Part of the problem is the region’s location in arid and semi-arid areas. Thirty percent of its arable lands could face desertification due to acute water scarcity. Climate change has also complicated the issue: According to one report, Arab countries could see economic losses of up to 14 percent of gross domestic product from water scarcity related to climate change.
Water shortages are particularly concerning in Egypt, whose growing population, which will exceed 175 million by 2050, depends almost entirely on the Nile for its water needs. The country is already feeling the effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will shrink Egypt’s share of Nile water by at least 20 billion cubic meters annually. Rising temperatures will exacerbate the situation, causing water supplies to evaporate and reducing precipitation along the northern coast.
The growing difficulties in producing food staples (wheat, cooking oil, legumes and meat) have forced Arab countries to rely more on imports. But rising prices for foodstuffs, driven in part by the use of some grains for fuel production, puts these imports out of reach for many Arab consumers. Agricultural expansion is the only way out, but this places an even heavier burden on water supplies.
In many countries, the shortages are related to deficiencies in fuel. In Lebanon, more than four million people face severe water shortages due to the country’s ongoing fuel crisis. Neighboring Syria is suffering similar effects from its own energy shortfall. And like Lebanon, the problem in water-rich Sudan is distribution, especially for household use, due to a serious shortage of diesel to operate pumping stations.
Algeria, meanwhile, is suffering from a three-year drought. The Ministry of Water Resources has admitted to a crisis in the supply of potable water in several states in the central and northern regions of the country. The government established an emergency plan to address the crisis by building new seawater desalination plants, fixing broken ones and digging wells. In Morocco, where annual water supplies dropped below 600 cubic meters per capita, the government decided to stop providing financial support to farmers of watermelon, avocado and citrus fruits – crops that consume a lot of water. Facing the most severe drought in four decades, the government also plans to address water waste and indiscriminate exploitation. These measures are unlikely to solve the problem, however. A long-term solution would involve constructing water desalination plants, but the country lacks the funds.
Over-irrigation is the most important cause of water waste in the Arab region, where the agricultural sector accounts for 84 percent of water consumption. Because of waste and mismanagement, just 50 percent of the region’s water resources, amounting to about 340 billion cubic meters, are being exploited. Thus, policies that promote water use efficiency and explore new sources will become increasingly important in solving the region’s water scarcity problem.
Transboundary Resources