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Thread: Could we be on the brink of economic recovery?

  1. #11
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    countryboy's Avatar Senior Member
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    If the bogus unemployment numbers cited by the OP were even remotely accurate, why are we still having such severe supply chain issues in this country? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller? Bueller?
    Cutesy Time is OVER

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    FindersKeepers's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy View Post
    If the bogus unemployment numbers cited by the OP were even remotely accurate, why are we still having such severe supply chain issues in this country? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller? Bueller?
    Because unemployment numbers are not necessarily indicative of supply chain issues?

    By the way, some of the bigger supply chain problems have been easing over the past several months.
    ""A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul" ~George Bernard Shaw

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    Quote Originally Posted by FindersKeepers View Post
    Because unemployment numbers are not necessarily indicative of supply chain issues?

    By the way, some of the bigger supply chain problems have been easing over the past several months.
    Have you heard about fertilizer shortages?
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Have you heard about fertilizer shortages?
    Not yet. I just paid our local Co-op to come out and fertilize the brome.

    But of course, there could be a fertilizer shortage and it's just not affecting my area.

    Even in the best of times, we see shortages of one sort or another. I'm sure that shortages, by themselves, are good economic indicators.

    One of the reasons behind the low unemployment rates is that Baby Boomers decided to retire early during the pandemic and we now have a shortage of workers.

    That's driving up wages but not in keeping with inflation. Rather than raise wages more, we just need to bring down inflation.

    At any rate--what we're seeing right now is cause for hope.
    ""A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul" ~George Bernard Shaw

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    OLD GUY IN FLORIDA's Avatar Senior Member
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    Are we on the brink of economic recovery?

    Will Santa Claus bring me a Ferrari this year?

    Same stupid question
    Devotion to the truth is the hallmark of morality; there is no greater, nobler, more heroic form of devotion than the act of a man who assumes the responsibility of thinking.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by FindersKeepers View Post
    No. Just hopeful.

    It almost seems as though you want the economy to keep struggling.
    I don't want it to keep struggling. I just want people to understand pie in the sky is just that, pie in the sky.
    Devotion to the truth is the hallmark of morality; there is no greater, nobler, more heroic form of devotion than the act of a man who assumes the responsibility of thinking.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by FindersKeepers View Post
    Because unemployment numbers are not necessarily indicative of supply chain issues?

    By the way, some of the bigger supply chain problems have been easing over the past several months.
    Which ones? Certainly not the automobile industry. And if unemployment is so low, why are most businesses understaffed, and having a difficult time finding workers?
    Cutesy Time is OVER

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    Quote Originally Posted by FindersKeepers View Post
    Not yet. I just paid our local Co-op to come out and fertilize the brome.
    But of course, there could be a fertilizer shortage and it's just not affecting my area.
    Even in the best of times, we see shortages of one sort or another. I'm sure that shortages, by themselves, are good economic indicators.
    One of the reasons behind the low unemployment rates is that Baby Boomers decided to retire early during the pandemic and we now have a shortage of workers.
    That's driving up wages but not in keeping with inflation. Rather than raise wages more, we just need to bring down inflation.
    At any rate--what we're seeing right now is cause for hope.
    I will have to disagree with your assessment.

    We have not even felt the worst of the impact of foolish decisions during and after the pandemic. Between the Democrats trying to build their dependency supporters and the Republicans dealing with the loss of their spines, Biden has succeeded in driving people out of the workforce, and not all of them are 'Baby Boomers'.

    As Biden increases the pressure on certain industries like petroleum, the rising costs of delivery and production will remain high, and higher still. His ill-timed and poorly chosen words for Big Oil are a a large factor, since transportation is an underlying cost to EVERYTHING.

    Labor shortages are exuberated by the increase of 'disability' filings due to COVID. Apparently it is relatively easy to get disability for COVID, while fibromyalgia, which has many of the same conditions, symptoms and prognosis, is very difficult to get disability for. A Tsunami of Disability Is Coming as a Result of 'Long COVID' - Scientific American

    So there goes part of the labor shortage.

    What is NOT included in that rosy unemployment number is people who have voluntarily left the workforce. They have stopped looking for work, because they may be aged out for certain types of work, or during the 'great resignation' when people played musical chairs with their employment, or even those who found remote work and want to continue it.

    Personal note, a cousin who went from office to remote for 2 years, then was told she had to return to the office, had been able to not have to pay daycare for her 3 year old, and decided to remain an at home parent for cost savings and education of their child. -1 (x??) from the labor pool.

    The drop in unemployment isn't having an effect on inflation. It is squeezing the life out of low and middle class people.
    "I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." -- James Madison

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    zelmo1234's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by FindersKeepers View Post
    Economic downturns always turn around--this might not be it--but I sure hope it is. But, it doesn't happen overnight, it takes time and typically we only see tiny signs at the beginning of a upturn.
    I'm hopeful! Time will tell.
    You are seeing the Government do all it can to look for a soft landing, the problem is they are broke and everything that do to prop up the current economy is going to make that landing harder, I think Peter hit is right people are tapping into equity retirement and credit cards to stay afloat but that money is running out. Since 11/30/2022 Auto loan defaults are up 30%

    And while the employment numbers are not bad, it is only because the service sector is still in need of warm bodies, Look at the thousands of layoffs that have happened in the last few months, those were coveted High paying Jobs and those people are going to be making half of what they once did. The Gas prices are about to hit summer blend and we are running out fo the strategic reserve, Once those prices rse you will get another round in the food and the rest of the energy sector and that is when the recession will start in earnest.

    I look for Stocks to lose about 1/3of their value, Housing and durable goods will drop dramatically as well. If you ever wanted a big-ticket item, if you have cash, you will be able to get one on the cheep

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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy View Post
    Which ones? Certainly not the automobile industry. And if unemployment is so low, why are most businesses understaffed, and having a difficult time finding workers?
    Is unemployment low simply because soo many have dropped out of the workforce?
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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