Time for negotiations to end the war?

[MisterVeritis]

So are the Ukrainians delaying their offensive over Bakhmut, or do they think they can't actually conduct a major offensive?

Bakhmut is a honeypot. I have heard whispers that retaking the demolished town may be the opening of the spring counter offensive. If so it will be a wasted effort and squandered opportunity.

[carolina73]

I still don't see a a new Ukraine offensive designed to drive back Russia in current battle points like Bahkmut. I expect Ukraine to sweep through the softer and poorly manned southern sector to divide Crimea from Donbas and then to drive back toward Kherson.
Only then are the back to a position that denies Putin a significant victory from prewar boundaries.

[MisterVeritis]

I still don't see a a new Ukraine offensive designed to drive back Russia in current battle points like Bahkmut. I expect Ukraine to sweep through the softer and poorly manned southern sector to divide Crimea from Donbas and then to drive back toward Kherson.
Only then are the back to a position that denies Putin a significant victory from prewar boundaries.

Not long ago I posted my three guesses for where a spring counter offensive might strike if the goal is to cut the land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. But it might be fun to consider an attack designed to sweep down a flank and behind the defensive belts the Russians have been creating since October last year. With third of a million men, a couple thousand tanks, a couple thousand infantry fighting vehicles, a couple of brigades of engineer support, massive air support, and luck, the Ukrainians could pull it off.

[Peter1469]

I still don't see a a new Ukraine offensive designed to drive back Russia in current battle points like Bahkmut. I expect Ukraine to sweep through the softer and poorly manned southern sector to divide Crimea from Donbas and then to drive back toward Kherson.
Only then are the back to a position that denies Putin a significant victory from prewar boundaries.

If they manage that I bet they start putting feelers out for peace talks.

[carolina73]

Not long ago I posted my three guesses for where a spring counter offensive might strike if the goal is to cut the land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. But it might be fun to consider an attack designed to sweep down a flank and behind the defensive belts the Russians have been creating since October last year. With third of a million men, a couple thousand tanks, a couple thousand infantry fighting vehicles, a couple of brigades of engineer support, massive air support, and luck, the Ukrainians could pull it off.

There is a large amount of land and it is more sparsely equipment with Russian equipment on the land bridge. I'm thinking an early clue would be another hit on the Crimean Bridge which has almost completed its repairs. That would leave Russian ships as targets for the drones and resupply having to come in from the northern corridor. Ukraine is only 80 miles from a beachfront on the Asov, with no big defensive lines in the way. Although current maps are scarce since little forward progress has been made by anyone.

[MisterVeritis]

There is a large amount of land and it is more sparsely equipment with Russian equipment on the land bridge. I'm thinking an early clue would be another hit on the Crimean Bridge which has almost completed its repairs. That would leave Russian ships as targets for the drones and resupply having to come in from the northern corridor. Ukraine is only 80 miles from a beachfront on the Asov, with no big defensive lines in the way. Although current maps are scarce since little forward progress has been made by anyone.

Of course the Russians have intelligence officers who can see the lay of the land better than you and I.

And how much can one do with about 50,000 men? Assume ten brigades. Attack with two brigades abreast with two in follow and support roles? Will a brigade be given a flank screening/protection role on each flank? That commits six brigades. Will brigades be held in reserve to respond to Russian attacks?

Against a defense in depth how much progress can we expect from this attack before it reaches its culmination point? 15 kilometers? Twenty tops?

When, where, and in what strength will the Russians counter attack? The Soviets had independent tank battalions that could spearhead a counter attack followed by a motorized rifle regiment. The Russian order of battle is probably similar.

[Tahuyaman]

So are the Ukrainians delaying their offensive over Bakhmut, or do they think they can't actually conduct a major offensive?

I think that they could not mount an effective offensive operation.

[Tahuyaman]

Even if they do, will they be a spent force afterwards?

Western nations are getting close to having nothing left to give them.

It would be too costly for Ukraine in terms of both equipment and manpower.

[RMNIXON]

The time for Negotiations were long ago. But the US and EU media placed the idea of total Russian defeat in our minds.

[carolina73]

Of course the Russians have intelligence officers who can see the lay of the land better than you and I.

And how much can one do with about 50,000 men? Assume ten brigades. Attack with two brigades abreast with two in follow and support roles? Will a brigade be given a flank screening/protection role on each flank? That commits six brigades. Will brigades be held in reserve to respond to Russian attacks?

Against a defense in depth how much progress can we expect from this attack before it reaches its culmination point? 15 kilometers? Twenty tops?

When, where, and in what strength will the Russians counter attack? The Soviets had independent tank battalions that could spearhead a counter attack followed by a motorized rifle regiment. The Russian order of battle is probably similar.

Ukraine does not have a shortage of young men and has had all winter to train them. The question is did they. And going through the countryside moves a at faster rate than taking large towns and cities.

Ukraine started with 40 million people. That gives them 5 million men between 18-40 of age for military service. Increasing their army should not be a problem. Training and arming them is.
The Ukrainian strategy should be to take land and block supply lines, to draw the Russians out. Disable the rail and roadways. Then use drones to knock out ships trying to resupply through the Asov.

What they are doing in Bahkmut is just a pissing match and winner gets a pile of debris.