Alik Bakhshi
The terrible price of the roof from the rose revolutions
The Rose Revolution turned out to be highly contagious and its virus, deadly for the ruling nomenklatura, which has settled in the power structures of the former Soviet republics, including Russia, is inexorably spreading throughout the post-communist space from West to East. In a relatively short time, the virus hit Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan, sweeping out of the annals of power, the partyocracy dependent on the Kremlin and mired in corruption. Judging by the political situation, the virus has entered Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. However, apparently, in these countries there is not yet a sufficient breeding ground for his successful pro-democratic activities. The same can be said about Russia, in which, despite the presence of democratic parties, the virus is powerless, and not because the state power is hiding from the people behind the high walls of the Kremlin, but because a significant part of the Russian people has strong immunity against the democratic “contagion”. ". That is why there are no representatives of Russian nationality among the leaders of democratic parties. (More details about this in my article “People's Fate or Each Cricket Has Its Own Hearth”) This immunity is explained by the traditional for Russian servility to an official of any rank and the great-power imperial worldview. And while this immunity is present in the people literally at the genetic level, no kind of democratic virus is terrible for the Kremlin authorities. As a result, power in the Russian Empire can be nothing but totalitarian. Empire and Democracy are incompatible things! The situation is different in the former Baltic Soviet colonies. There, the peoples of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have found national freedom and democracy at the same time as a matter of course and inalienable components of modern society.
The color revolutions that took place in Ukraine and Georgia seem to have forever introduced their peoples into the legal field of democracy. The only thing that threatens these countries is the loss of territorial integrity, because the Kremlin will not use the difficult demographic situation in the eastern part of Ukraine and Crimea, with a large concentration of the Russian population, and of course, the extremely complex interethnic problems in Georgia. The breakthrough of democracy in Kyrgyzstan in the very center of Asia can be attributed to an unexpected phenomenon, and how serious it is, contrary to the local mentality, time will tell. As for the situation with democracy in the remaining Soviet republics that have become independent, it has hardly undergone any significant changes, and their democratization is hindered by the traditional clan basis of power in the East.
What is indicative of all color revolutions is the extremely negative reaction from Moscow. The fact is that the color revolutions deprive Moscow of its reliance on corrupt authorities, finally removing the former colonies of Russia from political influence. Moreover, Moscow's reaction to the successes of democracy among its neighbors is a kind of test for the state of democracy in Russia itself. In view of the foregoing, it becomes understandable that such a hasty and somewhere unexpected signing of the Treaty on Allied Relations between Russia and Uzbekistan, which, in addition to the common phrases that are traditional today about countering international terrorism, provides for the introduction of Russian troops in the event of aggression from a third state . It is difficult to assume that one of the neighbors, and even more so from the borders of another continent, is planning aggression against Uzbekistan, most likely any step of the internal opposition will be taken for aggression. Immediately, the appearance of international terrorists in Uzbekistan will be announced, as was the case in Chechnya, and the Russian soldier, fulfilling his international duty, will again occupy the country. History remembers similar treaties of mutual assistance between the Soviet Union and the Baltic states, as a result of which the latter lost their independence. But if then the agreements were imposed by force, then in this case it is a mutually beneficial deal between the Uzbek dictator, who is afraid of losing power and the country is increasingly regaining the status of an empire. This agreement cannot be called international in any way, because it is an agreement between Russia and one person - Islam Karimov. Fear of the coming color revolution is the main reason that pushed Karimov to such a low act in relation to his people and his country. By signing the treaty, Karimov not only betrayed the Uzbek people, but also transformed himself from the status of president of an independent country into the category of a puppet, with whom Putin can now do whatever he pleases. Not without reason, according to the text of the agreement, it remains in force until the expiration of 12 months from the date when one of the parties notifies the other in writing of its intention to terminate it. Thus, Russia has quite enough time to turn the political situation in a favorable direction, even to the point of replacing one puppet with another.
A similar picture may emerge in Azerbaijan. But, if the President of Azerbaijan, like Karimov, seeks the support of his power in Moscow, then in this case complications will certainly be expected due to the Karabakh conflict, in which Russia traditionally supports the Armenian side, and an agreement on mutual assistance with Russia in the form in which it was signed by Karimov, impossible. And, although the example of Comrade Karimov shows that there is no limit to human baseness, it seems that the son of Comrade Heydar Aliyev will not take such a step. If he loses in a fair fight in the repeated or next elections and another clan comes to power, which is most likely for Azerbaijan, then in the worst case, Aliyev Jr. will end up abroad, perhaps even in Russia.
Whatever internal political events take place, the most important thing for all former Russian colonies is not to lose independence. This is precisely what Washington's policy should be focused on in order to stop the possibility of the revival of the Russian Empire within its former borders. Alas, the current owner of the White House is a useless politician, he is unaware that "the East is a delicate matter." The ingenious Winston Churchill once noted that the Americans had a certain political naivety in their relations with Russia, for which they later had to pay with a long period of the Cold War. But if Roosevelt, who completely relied on the Soviet Union as a sincere ally, can be reproached for naivety, then Bush Jr., who found an ally, in the person of Russia, in the fight against a virtual worldwide Islamic conspiracy, an ally transferring an atomic baton into the hands of Iranian obscurantists , can be called just pure madness.
Instead of eradicating the real cause of the tragedy of September 11, namely, to actively engage in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, the cowboy Bush, riding a camel, began to rush along the sands of Babylon with the cry “Give Democracy!” Yes, so loudly that he scared to death the comrades of the kings in the whole district, one of whom, out of fear of this very democracy, preferred to hide in the mouth of a lion.
14.12.05.
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Originally Posted by slideman
