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Thread: Haley Opens Massive Lead Over Biden

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    Haley Opens Massive Lead Over Biden

    Recent polling has, perhaps unsurprisingly, provided much good news for Republicans. In fact, these days most surveys of Americans indicate that just about any Republican the GOP may nominate would likely beat President Biden, Kamala Harris, or any other Democrat for that matter, in a head-to-head match-up and lead by an even wider margin in a three, four, or five-way contest featuring independent and/or third-party candidates. One Republican candidate stands out though. The most recent national survey by Fox News indicates suggests that Nikki Haley wouldn't just narrowly defeat Biden in a two-candidate race, but trounce him by an 11-point margin, garnering 52% of the vote to Biden's 41% of such an election were held right now. The same poll finds Trump leading Biden in such a match-up by a much smaller margin of four points and Ron DeSantis leading him by five. It's worth pointing out that this particular poll shows somewhat better results for Republicans all-around than most are at the moment, so the margins here may be outliers to some extent, but nonetheless the mere possibility of that scale of victory is something I think worth noting, as it would likely make a very significant and meaningful difference in terms of the down-ballot effect for the party as a whole. A Nikki Haley nomination would likely, in other words, translate into not just Republicans retaking the White House, but also establishing large GOP majorities in Congress capable of passing much legislation without the aid of Democrats. (After all, people who vote Republican at the top of the ticket are likely to also do so down the ballot as well. That's what I'm getting at.) Probably not so much in the case of the alternatives. They wouldn't necessarily bring in as strong a governing mandate, even if they could technically win under these circumstances. I highlight this because it's a strong case for Republicans to choose Haley specifically as their presidential candidate.

    The linked Fox article breaking down their poll's findings elaborates:

    "Haley’s margin against Biden is better than Trump’s among groups Democrats need to hold the White House: women, voters under age 30 and those 65 and over, independents, college graduates, moderates, and suburban women. She leads Biden among independents by 43 points compared to Trump’s 16-point advantage. Among college graduates, Biden’s 5-point edge over Trump becomes a 9-point deficit against Haley."

    It's obvious to me why that all is. In particular, I appreciate Haley's willingness to embrace a more moderate and respectful stance on abortion than most Republicans and in an election wherein clearly national security will be a factor in play, Haley's assertive posture, while more aggressive than I would prefer, is one that makes me, and I suspect many other people as well, feel safe. Those are areas where she stands out from the pack to me. In most other areas, she's pretty much a standard-issue Republican, which has its own merits on a number of issues today, like border policy and crime, alongside certain smaller issues like the integrity of women's sports that I do at least consider as well. I likewise trust her to be more concerned about the cost of fuel than about the demands of the climate cult and, in contrast to some other Republicans running, I also doubt that she'd expend a lot of time and energy promoting things like book bans in schools and public libraries. She just comes off like a more level-headed person that way than one has gotten used to. She's also, frankly, the only one besides Trump who doesn't seem to be running for running mate status or (in the case of Chris Christie) some speaking gig or book deal or something. Seriously, all the men even dress up as Trump at the debates down to the trademark red tie every single time. The red tie of sycophancy. Haley is the only candidate who seems to be doing something different or even just have her own wardrobe sensibilities. She's actually running for president.

    By far my biggest area of disagreement with Haley is economic policy, wherein she embraces some of the most extremely right wing positions available, including calls to start privatizing Social Security, expand privatization of the school system, lay off most of the federal workforce without expecting a recession to result somehow, neocon austerity politics like this. Her economic policy prescriptions would frankly be a deal-breaker for me in the general election. However, I also plan on voting in the Republican Party primary if it's still going by the time it's Vermont's turn to vote, namely because I would aim to minimize the potential damage this country might suffer in the general election. I definitely don't want Trump to even make it to the November ballot if there's any chance at all it can be prevented. I view Nikki Haley as a decidedly more tolerable, more sane, more overall reasonable, and less dangerous option that would not result in this country being transformed into a police state whether she won or lost. I would vote for her in the Vermont Republican primary, given the chance.

    The next question, of course, is will there be a chance or is this just going to be the Trump coronation that the pundits claim and current national polling appears to suggest on the surface level? While there's obviously no doubt that a Trump victory in the Republican nominating battle is by far the most likely outcome, I also sense a deep, deep dissatisfaction in this country with the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch; a very real yearning for alternatives. And I'm seeing tacit evidence that that could indeed translate into a more competitive primary contest than one may at first think. Check this out, for example: In the nation's first primary contest in New Hampshire, a recent poll -- the first to exclude Tim Scott since he recently dropped out to the race, and thus the most pertinent survey of New Hampshire voters available -- shows Haley now cracking 20% support there, reaching about half Trump's current level of support in the contest. Just as notably, observe that Chris Christie, who hails from nearby New Jersey, fares unusually well in that contest as well, enjoying 14% support. Let us suppose, for example, that Christie were to drop out of the race between now and that contest. Where would his voters default to? Donald Trump? () The much more socially conservative Ron DeSantis? Or...the next most moderate option, Nikki Haley? See what I'm getting at here? Adding the bulk of those voters to Haley's tally would bring her above 30% support in the state, and thus within striking distance of Trump. From there, it's simply a matter of persuading a small number of softer Trump backers to switch camps, which, considering that most of his current supporters in the nominating contest are female, seems especially doable for someone like say a female candidate seen to be on the ascent. And then from there, the next state to vote would be...Nikki Haley's home state of South Carolina! You can see what I'm getting at here. Wins over Trump in those two states would definitely change the entire narrative of this race. The whole sense of Trump being inevitable would evaporate instantly and it would be on. All bets are off at that point, I think. A development like that is not wholly outside the realm of possibility here, methinks. Not as much as is often portrayed. The possibility for a stunning upset does indeed exist.

    Ron DeSantis's prospects I dismiss. He's banked his whole campaign on a win in the Iowa Caucus because they usually go for the more Christian conservative types. You know, Mike Huckabee carried Iowa in the 2008 caucus race, Rick Santorum carried it in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016. You see the pattern there. That's the vote DeSantis is aiming to lock up, but he's now in danger of dropping into third place behind not only Trump but also Nikki Haley even there and is poised to fare even worse in both New Hampshire (he's now in fourth place there behind even Chris Christie according to the poll I cited in the last paragraph!) and South Carolina. It's simply not happening for him. He'll drop out of the race early. He really should just drop out now, but I think his monumental ego will demand an actual, crushing loss in Iowa before he's willing to concede his non-viability.

    So I guess what I'm saying here is that 1) this can in fact happen, as unlikely as it may seem, and 2) it would be the best possible outcome from my perspective if it did.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-19-2023 at 02:52 AM.

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    Copy and Paste much?
    Your Trump Derangement Syndrome is NOT my problem!

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    Quote Originally Posted by RMNIXON View Post
    Copy and Paste much?
    I can see why they call you tricky Dick.

    No. The italicized part is literally the only thing I copy/pasted, which is why it's italicized.

    The sole and exclusive purpose of the above reply was to lie, offend, and start a flame war. I'm not one to use the Report feature...in fact I don't think I have in like four or five years now...but you people mistreat me so $#@!ing frequently that it has to be more actively discouraged somehow. I'm just so sick of this kind of disingenuous bull$#@! being the only replies to my threads. Therefore, the next reply that looks like it gets reported. And if that doesn't work then, like Mr. Nixon, soon you won't have Polly to kick around anymore, gentlemen.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-19-2023 at 06:58 AM.

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    I don't think Dick Cheney with three-inch heels stands a chance against Trump. Maybe she should run as a Democrat or an independent.
    "I get a lot of credit I don't deserve." -- Joe Biden

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21 View Post
    I don't think Dick Cheney with three-inch heels stands a chance against Trump. Maybe she should run as a Democrat or an independent.
    Well you're entitled to your opinion. I found Mr. Ramaswamy's noticeably gendered critique a bit out of touch, personally. First off, there is a lot of demand for sharp-edged yet broad-minded, old-fashioned Reagan type Republicans like her these days, at least outside of the GOP, mainly because they're more capable of listening to their detractors. And they often hate women less than these oh so bleeding edge Peter Thiel-financed "new right" air heads.

    You're right about Haley being more popular amongst independent women and moderates that registered Republicans. The survey of New Hampshire voters I referenced in the OP, for example, finds the following to be the current top three voting preferences of the registered Republicans there:

    Trump: 55%
    Haley: 17%
    DeSantis: 11%

    Among New Hampshire independents who plan to vote in the GOP primary, by stark contrast, the opinion skew looks like this:

    Haley: 25%
    Trump: 24%
    Christie: 24%

    I just don't think that's actually a bad thing, I guess, being an independent voter from the state next door myself. New Hampshire independents were the people who gave Trump his first electoral victory. Now look where they are. Think about that. Think about that in terms of who you think it wisest to nominate.

    As to Vivek Ramaswamy, personally I feel like he should take his smugness, his $950 million, his avant garde new-economy biotech credentials, and his degrees from Harvard and Yale where he learned the merits of cutting off aid to Israel and selling out all our other allies in the world to Islamic terrorists and dictators who hate us at the earliest possible convenience, and go back to his mega-mansion in Ohio where Issue 1 that he opposed just won by a landslide to contemplate whether he spends too much of his life in an intellectual bubble to actually be the next Donald Trump. And also whether trying to academically imitate Donald Trump is actually a good idea.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-19-2023 at 08:17 AM.

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    Even after Haley came out in favor of banning online anonymity, Polly is still supporting her. Absolutely amazing levels of degeneracy.

    Meanwhile, Haley and her neocon ilk are encouraging a literal genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, which Polly tacitly endorses herself while equivocating weakly about human rights.

    Naturally, the wildly out of touch membership at this forum has no idea just how much the paradigm has shifted, as the world watches in absolute horror at the Israeli slaughter of innocents.

    Now back to your regularly schedule programming.
    Power always thinks it has a great soul, and vast views, beyond the comprehension of the weak. And that it is doing God service when it is violating all His laws.
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    I can see why they call you tricky Dick.

    No. The italicized part is literally the only thing I copy/pasted, which is why it's italicized.

    The sole and exclusive purpose of the above reply was to lie, offend, and start a flame war. I'm not one to use the Report feature...in fact I don't think I have in like four or five years now...but you people mistreat me so $#@!ing frequently that it has to be more actively discouraged somehow. I'm just so sick of this kind of disingenuous bull$#@! being the only replies to my threads. Therefore, the next reply that looks like it gets reported. And if that doesn't work then, like Mr. Nixon, soon you won't have Polly to kick around anymore, gentlemen.
    Awwww, poor little victim. Never did nothing to nobody.

    Power always thinks it has a great soul, and vast views, beyond the comprehension of the weak. And that it is doing God service when it is violating all His laws.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post


    Even after Haley came out in favor of banning online anonymity, Polly is still supporting her. Absolutely amazing levels of degeneracy.

    Meanwhile, Haley and her neocon ilk are encouraging a literal genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, which Polly tacitly endorses herself while equivocating weakly about human rights.

    Naturally, the wildly out of touch membership at this forum has no idea just how much the paradigm has shifted, as the world watches in absolute horror at the Israeli slaughter of innocents.

    Now back to your regularly schedule programming.
    That same world discounted the slaughter of innocent Jews.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Well you're entitled to your opinion. I found Mr. Ramaswamy's noticeably gendered critique a bit out of touch, personally. First off, there is a lot of demand for sharp-edged yet broad-minded, old-fashioned Reagan type Republicans like her these days, at least outside of the GOP, mainly because they're more capable of listening to their detractors. And they often hate women less than these oh so bleeding edge Peter Thiel-financed "new right" air heads.

    You're right about Haley being more popular amongst independent women and moderates that registered Republicans. The survey of New Hampshire voters I referenced in the OP, for example, finds the following to be the current top three voting preferences of the registered Republicans there:

    Trump: 55%
    Haley: 17%
    DeSantis: 11%

    Among New Hampshire independents who plan to vote in the GOP primary, by stark contrast, the opinion skew looks like this:

    Haley: 25%
    Trump: 24%
    Christie: 24%

    I just don't think that's actually a bad thing, I guess, being an independent voter from the state next door myself. New Hampshire independents were the people who gave Trump his first electoral victory. Now look where they are. Think about that. Think about that in terms of who you think it wisest to nominate.

    As to Vivek Ramaswamy, personally I feel like he should take his smugness, his $950 million, his avant garde new-economy biotech credentials, and his degrees from Harvard and Yale where he learned the merits of cutting off aid to Israel and selling out all our other allies in the world to Islamic terrorists and dictators who hate us at the earliest possible convenience, and go back to his mega-mansion in Ohio where Issue 1 that he opposed just won by a landslide to contemplate whether he spends too much of his life in an intellectual bubble to actually be the next Donald Trump. And also whether trying to academically imitate Donald Trump is actually a good idea.
    Nikki Haley is a Reagan-type Republican? What?

    I swear, watching Polly pretend to be conservative or traditional or whatever this new shtick is has been beyond bizarre.

    An erstwhile communist prostitute has come to show us all what it means to be a real conservative and a defender of the west!

    Power always thinks it has a great soul, and vast views, beyond the comprehension of the weak. And that it is doing God service when it is violating all His laws.
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    As to Vivek Ramaswamy, personally I feel like he should take his smugness, his $950 million...
    Your cognitive dissonance is simply incredibly. After all, it's Haley who went from being in debt to being a millionaire after entering politics. At least Vivek made his money in the real economy. He didn't have to shill for the military-industrial complex like Haley did.
    Power always thinks it has a great soul, and vast views, beyond the comprehension of the weak. And that it is doing God service when it is violating all His laws.
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